"The most powerful tool of a leader is deception. Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak. Convince the enemy your armies are near when they are far, and far when they are near. In this way the enemy is deceived into maneuvering for their own defeat." - Sun Tzu, Art of War
Venezuela is an egress from Damascus for the dark oil trade and a partner in the narco-terrorist cabal. US maritime forces are forming outside the shores of Venezuela. Caracas hosts a warm-water port that the world’s resistance — like the kids in high school who skip class and evade hall monitors — uses to trade dark energy products through ghost fleets.
They cannot trade on overt markets; the US dollar is the petrodollar, and they are adversaries. They are forced into the recesses of global markets. That’s why an entire maritime domain awareness industry has formed around them. Venezuela is a target — but not a time-sensitive one. Below is a theory, an argument for another motivation behind the US sabre-rattling at Venezuela. Even if it was not the original intent, Venezuela opens up other options.
The Narco-Terrorist Head
Venezuela is considered an arm of the narco-terrorist apparatus, if not one of its heads. The drug trade devastates the United States. A tactical war against cartels, on or just below the border, has not proven effective in long-term denial. The argument that Americans should stop “using” drugs is not a resolution, because unseen outside forces propel drugs into the US to weaken its society.
If Venezuela is a head of the Cerberus, there is rationale to cut it off in US interest. The current show of force is a few things:
- permission for the Venezuelan military to overthrow its leader,
- an unspoken ultimatum to Maduro,
- and a stark reminder to Iran and Russia that no warm-water port is safe because the US is the planet's hegemon.
Venezuela as Deception
Venezuela also makes sense as a deceptive prelude to war elsewhere. The pressure creates options for Washington but also confusion for adversaries. Venezuela may be a distraction for Iran and the world from Israeli military action inside Iranian sovereign territory. Russia and Iran must decide what to do if either theatre becomes active. But this leaves enough distraction of consciousness from a possible harsh reality for the Iranian regime — a complex, coordinated shock & awe by the Israeli military throughout Iran.
Terrain of Persia
Iran is mountainous, very mountainous. To infiltrate, land offset, from any given target, helicopter endurance is required that stretches the bounds of what is possible. Not to mention, Helicopters are a dangerous proposition under normal conditions. Because Iran is such dense terrain, there are limited targets — they even struggle to straddle it with military bases and defensive systems.
They rely, instead, on the IRGC and its export of their Islamic revolution abroad to start fires whenever their state is under threat. This dynamic has been a tenet and a key variable in the Western decision-making calculus on all things Iran. Vulnerable at home, Iran has been artistic in its ability to cast a shadow across the Middle East in a modern-day great game.
If lured into land warfare, the IRGC can win by not losing - the US must not be tricked into a ground assault. Even a surgical strike could pose a risk to the force and mission that would force the US to use its military. Extreme measures would be on the table for a nothing-to-lose Tehran, like Nuclear Weapons import from North Korea, and rhetoric to use it.
Obama doctrine posed a simple question to West Asians and the Middle East: Can you learn to live with your neighbors? They might be figuring that out through clashes. The Middle East has evolved since the US invaded Iraq, and it is now following a new paradigm. This paradigm has a receded US military presence and new Saudi leadership. The Gulf's cultural and existential threat of the "Shia tsunami" and Persian threat remains.
Prime Minister of Iraq Nour Al-Maliki once remarked, "I am not Washington's man." He was, and Iraq is, nonetheless, its own man. And that nation deserves to find a way to restore itself. Iraq is unlikely to intervene in an Israeli–Iranian war—they do not have the will to do so today.
That leaves Iran isolated - as Hezbollah is hollowed out, and the Houthis under the microscope, forced to move and act with tradecraft from the US's overhead eyeballs. After an era as a spectre in the shadows worldwide and intensely in the region, Iran is vulnerable.
Western Offset
The board is set for the Israeli military to demonstrate technological prowess:
- air power,
- special operations,
- intelligence to direct combat power,
- covert advantages built over a decade.
The US does not have to deploy its military, only provide appliances of war. Air and space overhead can flex technological omnipresence and deliver munitions with precision to remove IRGC key positions. If the US Air Force joins the fight inside Iran's borders, it's a choice, not a necessity.
The IRGC is the domestic oppressor and external vigilante. Its members are radicals. Some of the students who seized the US embassy, spurring the creation of JSOC. The IRGC is a power center in Iran of true believers and a committed military element. There are theories that the IRGC sighed in relief at the QUDS commander's death, Qassem Soleimani, and orchestrated the accidental death of President Raisi, in both cases men whose popularity rivaled the Ayotollah's son, and his path to succession, who the IRGC prefers and vice versa. Even if hair-brained, the IRGC is a spectre within a spectre of the Iranian state. It is the source of the shadow caste over Iran and the region. If immobilized, a green revolution revisit — or people’s revolution — is possible.
The people, many report, do not have love lost for the IRGC and might not react to their destruction. But there are millions of believers in the state of Iran, and sleeper cells in Iraq that would be activated. But to what extent? It could be a quick death of the IRGC or a prolonged low-intensity conflict post-shock and awe. The Ayatollah would be reduced to bodyguards and a helicopter - he would likely go down with the ship, a Libya replay.
The next section shows that, while harsh and geopolitically disruptive, an Israeli campaign for regime change in Iran could benefit portfolios. It is undeniable that this generates a polarity on its own and influences the war decision.
Markets and War Profiteers
How would this affect markets?
In the immediate term, it would fire off $ESLT. Lockheed, Raytheon, and the defense bloc would float a bit higher. Those stocks are DOGE-proof: defense product companies, not services. Wall Street has never understood defense, but the defense stock bloc would benefit alongside energy.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-st-rattled-by-iran-retaliation-israel-2025-06-13/
Israeli firms rumored to explore IPOs — IAI and Rafael spinouts — may do so and capture momentum. Israeli defense tech startups will surge, and Israel will become the Sparta of the Middle East.
Military action may mean occupation, peacekeeping, or proxy battles. The Houthis could surge and flare in the Red Sea. This favors the same firms — the $RTX coyote system and Anduril's Road Runner will see more action. Investors know that markets react to conflict. During the last Iran–Israel flare‑up, defense 'primes' like Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop all jumped more than 3% even as the S&P 500 slid, while oil surged nearly 7%. Traders see every escalation as a bid for the primes and an excuse to rotate into energy.
War‑risk premiums have also doubled or tripled. Carriers bound for Israel saw rates spike to around 0.7–1.0% of a ship’s value from 0.2% only days earlier, and Red Sea routes recorded similar jumps, with underwriters quoting as high as 1%. For tanker owners, that’s hundreds of thousands of dollars per voyage and a reminder that security isn’t just about jets.
Oil markets priced the risk, too. Brent crude shot up more than 4% on the news of Israeli strikes, with futures briefly topping $76 before falling back on ceasefire rumors. A 24‑hour scare can swing barrels by five to ten dollars.
Not every equity market shivers. In Tel Aviv, the TA‑125 index hit record highs after US strikes on Iran, rising nearly 8% in a week. Israeli investors appear to believe that the elimination of Iranian nuclear sites is ultimately bullish for their market.
After Israel struck Iran in June, shares of L3Harris jumped 25%, RTX 23%, and Rheinmetall 29%. Proxy conflict could even push Anduril toward a public offering to access the capital needed to cover down on multiple fronts and maintain a contingency for the Indo-Pacific.
"All warfare is based on deception". - Sun Tzu
